Is this the end of cheap gasoline?

In this article I will discuss how the current hike in gas prices may impact travel and how we can help to conserve more.

Although I like to travel and therefore spend a considerable amount of my budget on gas, I would like to see gas prices above $5 per gallon. Call me crazy, but I believe unless the price goes above this value, nobody will seriously consider conservation.

All efforts that we put towards renewable energy sources today are not going to yield anything in the short term and are a joke at best.

Background Information

 

Recent focus of the US government on hydrogen fuel leaves only one conclusion: They don’t know what they are talking about. Hydrogen will not solve anything in the short run, because it costs a lot of energy to split water (H2O) into Hydrogen (H) and Oxygen (O2). Hydrogen can also be refined from Natural Gas, but that doesn’t really solve anything, as Gas will not last forever either.

 

On the other hand, global demand for oil is rising very fast, and while many countries in Europe are actually decreasing their hunger for oil, this effect is completely overshadowed by the rising demand in countries like China and India.

This rising demand also means that there is a lot more competition on the buying side. While the US is struggling with Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela, China happily steps in and buys Oil from them. In return for the favor, they veto every UN resolution against any of those countries. With China stepping up and threatening to buy reserves, those countries can afford to threaten the US with oil prices. Even though the US is one of the largest oil producers in the world, it is also by far the single largest importer of oil. The oil consumption per head is many times higher than in every other country. The reason that the consumption in Europe is so much less is simple, Price. Even though the per-head consumption is only a fraction, the standard of living is about the same.

Currently, Saudi Arabia is one of the largest and most tended allies of the US in the Middle East. The reason is simple. They are the largest producer of Oil. Most of the proven oil reserves today are in politically unstable regions and most oil fields outside those regions are very mature and production is in decline.

Saudi Arabia has increased their production far beyond their normal rate in order to keep the oil price stable. In fact, the current hike in prices is not due to a shortage, but rather speculative. However, Saudi Arabia may actually be damaging their oil fields by overproducing. If too much oil is extracted from a certain field, it will take irreversible damage and thus hurt future production. Since nobody really knows the capacity of Saudi Arabia’s fields, no one can really know if they are damaging their fields or if they underestimated their own capability in the past.

Even though there is currently no real shortage in oil supply, the threads from Venezuela, Bolivia and Iran as well as the reduction of output in Nigeria due to rebel attacks make one fact very obvious. Oil supply is not steady and can be disrupted easily. Since oil demand raised so much, even the disruption at a single source, like Venezuela, will send prices sky high. 

In the meantime we see how Oil and Gas producers use their sources as instruments of political power. Russia (Gazprom) is blackmailing Europe into selling them gas delivery companies. Last winter they simply cut the supply to the Ukraine in order to enforce higher prices.

Besides the above-mentioned economic reasons, there are other reasons to stop burning fossil fuels. Greenhouse gases are polluting our planet. Recent data on global warming is alarming. The arctic ice is melting leaving oil companies looking towards the poles for oil fields.

All of this leaves only one conclusion, we need to reduce our dependency on oil, and we need to do it now.

What can we do in the short term

Looking towards Europe, one can learn a lot about conserving energy.

The current hike in gasoline prices has created a hype about hybrid fuel cars. These cars combine an electric motor and a gasoline engine through some very complex transmission system.

Hybrid fuel cars are most effective in city traffic, as they create energy while braking in stop and go traffic scenarios. The gasoline engine is optimized for low consumption. If power is needed for acceleration, the engine and the electric motor work together.

New generations of diesel engines are incredibly efficient and new particle filters have made them clean. Hybrid cars are not as efficient on longer trips, but diesel engines are. It has been proven, that a diesel-powered car will actually consume less over a long distance drive than a hybrid car.

Most people in Europe switch off their engine at a red light or when waiting for a train to pass. If you are standing still for more than 10s, the energy balance will be positive when you switch your car off (it takes a little fuel to start).

Combining a diesel engine with hybrid technology would probably yield the most fuel-efficient cars today. The only problem is cost. Diesel Engines cost more and hybrid engines cost more. Combine the two and you will have a car that nobody is willing to pay for (yet).

Those of us most affected by gasoline prices will not be able to afford new cars anyways, but there is more you can do.

Again, the reason why hybrid cars is so efficient, is that they are so good at transforming kinetic energy into electrical energy and then back into kinetic energy.

Try to avoid having to brake and accelerate as much as possible. Often I see drivers on the freeway whose brake lights are constantly lighting up, even though traffic is moving along at a constant rate. Try to avoid stepping on the gas too rapidly and thus try to avoid having to brake.

I bet it would be a good idea to optimize traffic light switching times too. If the cycles were longer, more drivers could slide through in a green phase, thus avoiding to stop down, while others who have red can simply turn off their engines.

I won’t go into other things mentioned everywhere else like tire pressure, trunk load and looking ahead while driving, as everyone else is writing about this these days.

If you have two cars or more, drive the car that gets the best gas mileage and use your SUV only if you have to haul big items.

Even at today’s energy demands, the Sun is sending much more power to us than we can consume. Solar power is simply too unreliable to make up for a large portion of our need, but there is a much better and more efficient way to harvest the suns power, Plants.

One example is Brazil. Half of the sugar cane production is being used to synthesize alcohol, which is being used to power cars.

However there are much more efficient and faster growing plants, that could be used to synthesize bio-fuels.

Again lets look at Europe. Here the percentage of diesel cars is much higher than anywhere else, for the above-mentioned reasons. Most of these cars can actually be driven with bio-diesel with no or very little modifications. This diesel is being extracted from canola, which can be grown very fast. There are even more efficient and faster growing plants like hemp that could be used for those reasons.

In the future, we should be able to grow our own fuel and reduce dependency on oil significantly.

Gasoline cars are being outfitted with a second gas tank and modifications to the engine, allowing them to run on liquefied natural gas. Although this is only an intermediate solution, it is a mature technology available today, for those areas where gas is abundant.

Coal is another fossil energy source. Gasoline can actually be refined from coal, however it is a very long and complicated process.

Public transportation systems are very mature in Europe. They run on time and in short succession. A large percentage of people are using them, since they are even faster than individual traffic during rush hours. You don’t have the stress of driving and you can read the paper.

What can we do in the long term

I do not dare to predict the long term. Most technologies like fusion are too far out to be practical anytime soon and even nuclear power fuel (uranium) will run out at some point.

However in the future we should not only focus on energy sources (like re-growing plant fuels) but also on clean energy, since we only have one Earth. You wouldn’t drill holes into your boat either, especially if there is no land in sight.

More efficient airplanes like the Dreamliner from Boing or the A-380 from Airbus will help to reduce the fuel per passenger. Smaller and more efficient cars with optimized and better engines (Atkinson cycle engine, Rotary Engine) will also help, but most of all we need to learn to rethink some of our habits. Why don’t we share rides to work or elsewhere and why do we have to drive the biggest car possible?

I think we are at the verge of a new revolution. A revolution that will transform how we move, create opportunities, jobs and wealth. Humankind has always proven resourceful, but 99% of new inventions were made out of necessity rather than fun. So in order for us to develop all those technologies, we need to feel the pressure to do so.

That is why I look at the increasing gas prices with mixed feelings.

Overall I am confident that we will find solutions to all our problems.

 

Credits

Andre Gunther wrote this article. Check out his Travel Photos

Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak asin: 0809029561

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